Trump’s signals to Zelensky and Europe: Accept this plan or you’re on your own

 The 28-point plan hammered out by US and Russian envoys and put to Ukraine this week came with a deadline and an implicit threat: Sign up or face the risk of being abandoned.

US President Donald Trump said Friday that Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky would “have to like” the US plan, suggesting he is in no mood to negotiate, and saying he has until Thursday to accept.

Zelensky recognized the stark choice in a somber speech to the nation on Friday, casting the plan as a choice between losing the United States as an ally and giving in to Russian demands, which many of the 28 points cater to.

If Kyiv were to lose US support, the consequences would be grave for its weapons supplies and access to intelligence, compounding existing crises: a lack of soldiers, a financial crunch and a deepening lack of confidence among Ukrainians in a presidency tainted by scandal.Above all, rejecting the proposal would herald an existential separation from the US, with massive strategic implications for Ukraine and its European backers. It would risk the US turning its back on the conflict altogether, reneging on pledges of a security guarantee for Ukraine and telling not just Zelensky but the Europeans: You’re on your own.

Weapons pipeline

Not getting US weapons would hurt Ukraine, but not as much as it would have done three years ago. That’s partly because the conflict has changed so much: Tanks, anti-tank weapons and armored vehicles now play a subordinate role to the ever-present drones.

And it’s partly because the weapons pipeline from Europe is now bigger than that from the US. From the start of the war through June 2025, Europe has allocated at least $40 billion in military aid, $5 billion more than the US.The loss of US weaponry would most of all affect Ukrainian air defenses, which include Patriot batteries and missiles. Zelensky has repeatedly pleaded for more air defenses from the US, but the Patriots are in short supply. Even if the US cut off its own supply of missiles and spare parts, it might allow European and other allies to continue helping.

Ukraine has also had a limited supply of highly effective US ATACM missiles.

The Trump administration has shown greater willingness to sell US weapons to a European-financed fund known as the Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) worth some $90 billion. But it could punish Ukraine by abandoning the program – if Kyiv rejects the plan.On the upside, Ukraine has built a formidable drone and missile industry, even if it needs scaling-up. Ukrainian officials have said that 90% of the drones it uses are made in Ukraine.

Intelligence sharing

The US briefly stopped sharing intelligence with Ukraine back in March, after the infamous Oval Office encounter between Trump and Zelensky.

The exact nature of that cooperation has never been publicly divulged but likely includes early warning of Russian missile launches and real-time analysis of Russian troop movements, critical at a time when Russian forces are making advances on several parts of the frontlines.In October, Zelensky acknowledged that all of Ukraine’s defenses against Russian missiles – Patriot, NASAMS and the IRIS-T – would have limited data without US intelligence, meaning there wouldn’t be enough information to ensure defense.

US intelligence has also been used by Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russia, including against military and energy infrastructure, Ukrainian sources have told CNN.

The Europeans are improving their access to such intelligence, but it takes years to build and coordinate such capabilities.

Men and money

Ukraine’s greatest problems are more homemade and couldn’t be fixed by any number of US tanks or missiles. Its military has a manpower crisis. Tens of thousands of soldiers went AWOL in the first seven months of this year alone.Many infantry units are severely under-staffed, but reducing the draft age from 25 is seen as a political landmine.Should Kyiv reject the blueprint, US backing for its solvency may be another casualty. The International Monetary Fund says Ukraine needs $65 billion in budget support over the next year alone. The European Union has been struggling to agree to a way to use frozen Russian assets as some sort of loan guarantee.

The 28-point plan – the work of Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian official Kirill Dmitriev – threatens to blow up the delicate negotiations on using those assets.“$100 billion in frozen Russian assets will be invested in US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine. The US will receive 50% of the profits from this venture.”

“Frozen European-held Russian funds will be unfrozen,” the plan insists – even if those funds are beyond US control and Europe is not party to the plan.